Trump sees red, prediction markets score and NATO’s defensive

Hello, this is Leonie Kidd writing to you from London. Welcome to today’s edition of the Daily Open newsletter.

Forgive me the football puns in today’s Daily Open, but the unprecedented move by President Trump to overturn a red card, as well as England’s win against Mexico, means that the games are dominating the agenda today.

“Thank you to FIFA for doing what was right, and reversing a great injustice!”

That’s U.S. President Donald Trump, thanking the international football association for overturning a red card suspension of U.S. striker Folarin Balogun. The move comes after an extraordinary intervention from the president, who reportedly called FIFA President Gianni Infantino and requested that he review the ban. It means Balogun is now cleared to play Belgium in today’s match in Seattle.

But this may not be the last of it — as Politico reports, Europe’s football federation, UEFA, is considering supporting Belgium with its own challenge of FIFA’s ruling.

For Europe, it’s not all bad news. Norway defeated Brazil, while England emerged victorious against Mexico, taking them both through to the quarter-finals.

But while this drama unfolds, the real winners of the World Cup so far are the prediction markets.

Kalshi saw more than $31 billion in notional trading during June, a more-than 70% increase from May’s total of $17.9 billion, according to user-collected data on Dune Analytics. The platform has consistently managed volumes over $1 billion daily since the football tournament began on June 11. 

Polymarket’s international event contract exchange set a new record high in monthly volume last month, with notional trading exceeding $10.8 billion. That reverses a downtrend in April and May, when volume fell. 

National rivalries are not just reserved for the football pitch.

They will be on full display at the NATO Leaders Summit in Ankara, Turkey. Last week, Trump set the stage with a message on Truth Social, saying it’s “ridiculous for the U.S.A. to continue along this one sided path when the (NATO) relationship is not reciprocal. They were not there for us!!!,” in reference to the war in Iran.

Over the coming days, he is expected to meet with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss Russia’s war. The Ukrainian leader has said there is “a real prospect of ending this war,” and that conversation would continue at the NATO summit in Ankara.

Trump’s ties to Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan will also be in focus this week, amid reports they could announce deals relating to F-35 fighter jets and engines.

New records are within striking distance for Wall Street.

Stock futures are higher as stock markets stateside are set to reopen after the long July 4th weekend. It’s a more varied picture across Asia, while European futures also point to a mixed open for major indices.

There is also an M&A hat-trick for investors to digest this Monday morning.

First up, defense giant Lockheed Martin looks set to acquire naval group Ultra Maritime in a $3.5 billion deal, according to CNBC sources.

Next up, British low-cost airline easyJet will accept a $7.3 billion takeover bid from Castlelake. The offer marks a 73% premium to the group’s share price on May 29, when deal talks began.

And finally, Swiss drug giant Novartis is buying Myrixc Bio in a deal worth $1.5 billion.

— Leonie Kidd. Davis Giangiulio contributed to this report.

World Cup fans spent anywhere from $2,500 to $150,000 to see matches—they say it was worth it

Eye-watering World Cup prices haven’t stopped soccer fans from around the world from opening their wallets.

As of July 2, some of the best resale seats for marquee knockout matches were listed for roughly $20,000 on StubHub. Many upper-level resale seats were listed for around $5,000.

But tickets are just one part of the cost. Add airfare, hotels, rental cars, meals and merchandise, and the price of attending the tournament can cost thousands of dollars more.

— Meline Rosales, Mike Winters