Treasury yields rose early Tuesday ahead of closely watched U.S. consumer price index data for October and weighed new comments from a top Federal Reserve official.
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which more closely follows short-term Fed rate decisions, climbed more than 6 basis points to 4.612%. Yields on 10-year Treasurys — the benchmark for mortgages, car loans and credit card rates — were up by 3.5 basis points to 4.897%. The 30-year Treasury bond yield, which is often impacted by geopolitical developments, was up 2 basis points at 5.275%.
One basis point equals 0.01% or 1/100th of 1%, and yields and prices move inversely to one another.
Economists polled by Reuters expect an October consumer price index print of 0.3% in October, down from 0.6% year-on-year growth in September. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, are expected to rise by 0.2%, lower than the 0.3% rise in September.
Traders are looking for evidence that inflationary pressure on the U.S. economy is slowing. The CPI data is due at 8.30 a.m. ET.
The report will come after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank needs to follow through on an expected rate hike next month to maintain credibility.
He said he is “leaning toward” a December increase, adding he would support “more robust action” if inflation readings are higher than expected.
“In that case, I believe a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting,” he said. “Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take.”
Oil prices dipped further on Tuesday morning, with Brent crude falling below $90 a barrel for the first time since August. This comes on the back of President Donald Trump’s comments that the war with Iran could end “fairly soon” as he played down the prospect of further strikes in the region.
Tuesday’s CPI data, together with wholesale inflation numbers due Friday, may shape the Federal Reserve’s future decisions on interest rates in the U.S. Markets have already largely priced in a 25 basis point hike in December, according to CME Group’s FedWatch.
It comes after U.S. employment data came in considerably stronger than Wall Street was expecting last week, with 165,000 jobs added in October, more than double forecasts.
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