As the U.S. tech giants scale eye-watering $5 trillion valuations , Europe still lacks a single member of the $1 trillion club. However, it’s closer than ever to that milestone โ and Dutch semiconductor firm ASML is the top contender to get there first, according to research released by PitchBook on Friday. ASML is a vital part of the global technology chain. The Veldhoven-based firm makes the complex and scarcely available machines used to print circuit patterns onto advanced semiconductor chips, with clients including Samsung, Intel and TSMC . The company “has been on a tear in recent quarters,” said Nalin Patel, director of EMEA Private Capital Research at PitchBook. Its market capitalization of $257.9 billion in 2025 represents a 2.6x increase in 17 months, and growth of 30.1% annually between June 2020 and June 2026. Based on historical growth rates โ which are not a guarantee of future performance โ and qualitative factors, PitchBook concluded that ASML could hit a $1 trillion valuation between 2028 and 2031. The market data company analyzed the growth trajectory of the range of trillion-dollar companies in public markets, which include Nvidia , Apple , Meta , Amazon , Tesla , SpaceX , Eli Lilly and Berkshire Hathaway in the U.S., and TSMC , Saudi Aramco, Samsung and SK Hynix in Asia and the Middle East. Unsurprisingly, it found a weighting toward technology firms โ particularly beneficiaries of the chip boom. It also found most were mature global businesses with vast scale that took two decades or more to hit the trillion mark, before accelerating rapidly beyond that. Europe’s primary obstacles to ultra-high valuations include capital markets fragmentation and regulation across the continent impeding growth; and a weighting away from technology and toward the health-care, consumer goods and energy in its biggest names, according to PitchBook. Revenues are also milder, with only four European companies achieving revenue above $100 billion in the 12 months to Aug. 20, versus 14 in the global top 20. Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk and French luxury conglomerate LVMH have had stints as Europe’s most valuable company in recent years, but both have fallen in value amid wider market trends. The biggest rival to ASML could be fellow chip firm Arm , which is U.K. based but listed on the Nasdaq in 2023 after a stint in private markets under SoftBank Group . The company designs semiconductor technologies that are used by other firms, making it crucial in the manufacture of products from iPhones to smart thermostats. “With average growth assumptions, Europe should see a significant number of trillion-dollar public companies emerge by the late 2030s,” Patel said. “However, growth over multiple years is more important than a single breakthrough moment, and the challenge is creating multiple candidates capable of surpassing $1 trillion. Scale is the key issue for European companies, and closing this gap will be critical to achieving trillion-dollar valuations.”
