June 5, 2026
2026 Oscars Predictions in Every Category


Varietyย Awards Circuitย section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars,ย Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated byย Varietyย chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

SINNERS, foreground from left: Michael B. Jordan, director Ryan Coolger, on set, 2025. ยฉ Warner Bros. / Courtesy Everett Collection

ยฉWarner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection

Oscars Commentary (Updated: Jan. 22, 2026): In one morning, the Oscar race went from settled to chaotic, and the reason is simple: โ€œSinners.โ€

For months, Paul Thomas Andersonโ€™s โ€œOne Battle After Anotherโ€ looked like a juggernaut poised to coast to the finish line. Instead, the race cracked wide open thanks to Ryan Cooglerโ€™s audacious vampire epic โ€œSinners,โ€ which stormed the nominations with a record-breaking 16 mentions โ€” the most ever for a single film.

โ€œOne Battle After Anotherโ€ remains a formidable contender with 13 nods, a sign of deep industry respect for both the film and the auteur, now a 14-time nominee who has yet to take home a competitive Oscar. But a surprise omission โ€” Chase Infiniti missed the best actress race โ€” may expose just enough vulnerability to invite a challenger, and that challenger is Cooglerโ€™s box office smash.

Other contenders landed respectable hauls, but none assembled the kind of nomination package that usually produces a best picture winner.

Chloรฉ Zhaoโ€™s โ€œHamnet,โ€ with eight nominations, is elegant and admired. Still, key misses โ€” notably Paul Mescal in supporting actor and the filmโ€™s editing โ€” make an upset difficult, even with lead actress Jessie Buckley positioned as the most likely acting winner of the season.

Guillermo del Toroโ€™s Gothic adaptation of โ€œFrankensteinโ€ received nine nominations. But the absence of a directing nod is historically tough to overcome, especially in a year dominated by two heavyweight frontrunners.

What separates โ€œSinnersโ€ isnโ€™t merely the volume it amassed. Itโ€™s also that it clearly resonated across all 19 branches of the Academy. Coogler enters the race having shattered records for Black representation. Ten Black artists are nominated for their work on the film, tying โ€œJudas and the Black Messiahโ€ (2021) for the most from a single movie. Coogler is only the third Black filmmaker nominated in the same year for producing, directing and screenwriting, joining Jordan Peele and Spike Lee, and the seventh Black man nominated for directing. His producing partner and wife, Zinzi Coogler, also made history as the first Filipina producer and the third Black woman nominated for best picture.

The filmโ€™s impact stretches across the crafts, with breakthroughs in cinematography โ€” Autumn Durald Arkapaw is the first woman of color to be recognized โ€” and costume design for two-time winner Ruth E. Carter, now the most-nominated Black woman in Oscar history.

More important, thereโ€™s precedent for an upset.

The race between โ€œLa La Landโ€ and โ€œMoonlightโ€ from 2016 proved that a timely and urgent drama could overtake a seemingly unstoppable musical frontrunner. And โ€œMoonlightโ€ achieved that with only a Golden Globe for best picture (drama) and a WGA prize under its belt.

When the World War I epic โ€œ1917โ€ (2019) swept key precursors, only for the Academy ultimately to crown Bong Joon Hoโ€™s โ€œParasiteโ€ the first non-English-language best picture winner, it showed the group could rise to the occasion of a historic moment, even though the film had just a SAG ensemble win to its name.

Overall, the noms revealed an unusually top-heavy year. Only 50 films were recognized across all categories, matching last yearโ€™s total and marking the lowest number since 2008. Whether that reflects shrinking viewing habits or an oversaturated landscape remains up for debate.

In some areas, the Academy continued to expand its horizons. A landmark four non-English-language performances earned acting nominations, and international cinema placed two films in both best picture and international feature for the second consecutive year. Latino artists posted historic gains across producing (Guillermo del Toro), acting (Wagner Moura for โ€œThe Secret Agentโ€) and animation (Yvett Merino for โ€œZootopia 2โ€). At the same time, women reached new highs in directing, sound โ€” with โ€œSirฤtโ€ fielding the first all-women sound team โ€” and overall representation, with a record 74 women nominated.

Taken together, this yearโ€™s nominations paint a portrait of an Academy in transition. Still imperfect and still evolving, it is increasingly responsive to films that marry craft, ambition and cultural relevance.

What once felt like an inevitable model now feels thrillingly uncertain.

Projected winner leaders (films): โ€œSinnersโ€ (7), โ€œOne Battle After Anotherโ€ (3), โ€œF1,โ€ โ€œFrankensteinโ€ and โ€œSentimental Valueโ€ (2)

Projected winner leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (10), Netflix (3), Apple (2), Neon (2)

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)

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