Blue Wave Questions: How Will Election Affect Media, FCC and More

The Democratic rout in the midterms was a referendum on President Trump, prices and the war in Iran. But it will have impacts that go well beyond the determinative issues — touching topics of key interest to Hollywood studios, broadcasters and their teams of government relations professionals.

Here’s a quick rundown of some of the key open questions as Washington adjusts to a new, blue reality for the final two years of Trump.

Federal tax incentives

Hollywood’s top legislative priority is to pass a federal tax incentive by the end of the year. The bill is bipartisan — uniting Trump and Adam Schiff — so in theory, a looming change of party control shouldn’t affect it.

But any disruption — and the election was a massive disruption — probably doesn’t help build momentum. It also doesn’t help that Trump seems to be wavering, telling a rally last Friday that people in Hollywood are “all calling me kissing my ass” for tax credits. “I’ll probably do it. Should I do it?” he asked the crowd, which booed. “We’ll have to think about it.”

The industry is putting stock in that “I’ll probably do it,” but it wouldn’t be the first time Trump had let someone down. Congressional Republicans, meanwhile, are in shock, and are turning their attention to recriminations and to a leadership race. They could still get Hollywood tax credits done, but it’s not top of mind. For their part, House Democrats may want to hold off on any bipartisan deals until the next Congress, when they will hold all the leverage.

Democrats are more supportive of Hollywood than Republicans are, so the odds may improve in the 120th Congress. But that would require starting over. Out of the 31 Republican cosponsors in the House and Senate, 10 will not be back next year. The bill also benefits from the idea of a crisis requiring immediate action — which could be hard to sustain over a longer legislative process. “The iron is very hot right now,” Schiff said in September. “We’re all very focused on this. The president is focused on this. I wouldn’t want to see that bleed into next year.”

FCC Oversight

Democratic control of Congress won’t flip the Federal Communications Commission. But it will lead to greater oversight of chairman Brendan Carr, who has spent the last two years jawboning broadcasters over Jimmy Kimmel’s jokes and launching inquiries into political commentary on “The View.” Democrats in Congress see Carr as a manifestation of Trump’s impulse to squelch opposing views, and are likely to use subpoena power to investigate past and future controversies. Whether that adds light or just heat is very much TBD.

PBS and NPR

The Corporation for Public Broadcasting went out of business last year when Congress stripped $1.1 billion in funding. That in turn threatened the budgets of hundreds of local stations, some of which have been forced to consolidate, and eliminated a significant source of funding for PBS and NPR.

With Democrats in charge, there’s at least the possibility of restoring the funding, though it would require a sidequest into the culture wars, as conservatives see NPR and PBS as vehicles of leftwing bias and indoctrination.

Supporters want more than just to recreate the CPB, which was built for the media environment of 1967. They hope to reinvent federal support for public media in a way that goes beyond broadcasting.

“We urge the incoming Congress to renew federal investment in public and community media after the loss of the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and build a system around what communities need today,” said Rima Dael, CEO of the National Federation of Community Broadcasters, in a statement. “Universal access to fact-based news, trusted local information, and cultural programming means reaching people on air and online, in the languages they use, at a time when reliable internet access remains uneven and AI can amplify misinformation and disinformation.”

Investigations

The House Oversight Committee will have a full plate of corruption investigations to pursue. It may or may not want to use its time to dive into the media capitulations of 2025 — the “Melania” documentary deal and the payouts over Trump’s “60 Minutes” lawsuit, his George Stephanopoulos lawsuit, his deplatforming lawsuits against Twitter, YouTube and Meta. Committee members may also take a hard look at the Ellison family’s efforts to win Trump’s blessing for the Paramount-Skydance and Paramount-Warner Bros. mergers. Any such efforts may lead to prolonged battles over executive privilege. But if Congress goes down that road and is successful, it could open up a trove of internal communications revealing how major media companies approached their dealings with the president at the peak of his powers.