The federal Liberal Party faces a tumultuous start toย 2025, as it scrambles to select a successor to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau before Canadians head to the polls later this year.
Trudeauย had been under increasing pressure to clear the way for someone new, amid political gridlock,ย strife within the Liberal caucus and persistent polling that has put the partyย behind theย Conservatives for more than a year.
The 53-year-old Trudeau reluctantly bowed to that pressure on Monday, announcing he’ll step aside once a new Liberal leader is chosen. He also moved to prorogue Parliament while this process unfolds.
When prime ministers and premiersย head for the exit, their parties have to adjustย โ occasionally on short notice.ย Canada has seen a few versions of this movie before.
After the walk in the snow
In 1984, Pierre Trudeau announces that he is stepping down as Liberal leader.
After a fabled walk in the snow, Pierre Trudeau announcedย on Feb. 29, 1984ย that he was leaving politicsย after 16 years as Liberal leaderย โ also serving, for most of that time, as prime minister.
His decision sparked a leadership contest, which allowed a familiar face to succeed him.
John Turner, a veteran Liberalย who had vied for the leadership when Trudeau prevailed in 1968, got his chance to be leader the second time around.
After winning the leadership in June of 1984, Turner, 55, was sworn in, and soon called an election.
Yet the polls looked grim for the Liberalsย as election day neared andย Brian Mulroney’sย Progressive Conservatives swept to power, three months after Turner ascended to the top of the Liberal Party.
Turner would leadย the Liberals for six years, includingย through the 1988ย electionย โ which the PCs also won.
About two weeks ahead of the 1984 election, a CBC poll suggests the Tories will form a majority government.
A short tenure for Kim Campbell
While Mulroney led the federal Progressive Conservatives to back-to-back majority governments, he would eventually fall from popularity. He became prime ministerย at age 45, and more than eight years later, revealed he’dย be making his exit.
The Progressive Conservatives win 211 seats, the biggest majority in Canadian history.
“The time has come for me to step aside,” Mulroney announced in February 1993, touting his party’s efforts to tackle tough issues under his leadership, butย acknowledging the PCs trailed the Liberals in the polls.
“I have done my very best for my country and my party and I look forward to the enthusiasm and renewal that only new leadership brings.”
A handful ofย candidates sought the leadership, with Kim Campbellย โ an experienced politician, yetย first-term MP who had served as Canada’s justice minister and attorney generalย โย emerging as the winner.
At 46,ย Campbell was sworn in as the country’s first-ever female prime minister in June.
However, like John Turner before her, Campbell’sย term at the top of the governmentย would be short-lived.
The October 1993 election saw the Progressive Conservatives reduced to just two seats in the House of Commons. Campbell was not among the candidatesย electedย to Parliament.
She resigned as PC leader that December.
When announcing his retirement, Mulroney had suggestedย the pendingย election would be fought between the PCs and the Liberals, but the Tories’ dismal performanceย at the polls actually put them in fifth place when all the votes were counted.
The Blocย Quรฉbรฉcois formed the Official Opposition for the first time and both the Reform Party and New Democrats won more seats than the Tories did.
Chrรฉtien to Martin
Jean Chrรฉtien led the federal Liberals to three straight majoritiesย โ in 1993, again in 1997ย and a third time in 2000.
In March of 2000, some Liberals were in favour of seeing a new leader replace Jean Chrรฉtien.
Yet he faced pressure to leave as far back as 2000, with some party members saying Paul Martinย โ Chrรฉtien’s veteran finance minister, who was first elected to Parliament in 1988ย โย deserved a chance to lead.
“A whisper campaign says [Martin] could quit if he isn’t given a shot at the top job and soon,”ย CBC’s Susan Bonner reported in mid-March of that year, months before the 66-year-oldย Chrรฉtien called a snap election that would mark his third majority victory.
The issue didn’t go awayย and tensions remainedย between the two senior Liberals, but Martin hung around, eventually succeedingย Chrรฉtien, at age 65, in late 2003.ย
In 2004, the Martin-led Liberalsย won a minority government, which lasted until it lost a non-confidence vote the following year. That triggered a winter election that saw the Stephen Harper-led Conservatives replace the Liberals in government.
The rise of Kathleen Wynne
Sudden shake-upsย in leadership are not confined to federal politics.ย
In October 2012, Ontario’s then-premierย Dalton McGuinty announced he would be stepping down as Liberal leader and that he would stay on until a successor was chosen. He also prorogued the legislature.
Like Justin Trudeau, the 57-year-oldย McGuintyย hadย been in powerย for nine yearsย at the time that he stepped down, and he also led a minority government.
Kathleen Wynne, then 59, won the ensuing leadership contest, becoming Ontario’s first female premierย in early 2013.
The following year, Wynne led her party to a resounding victory, winning a majority of the seats in the legislature.ย
The provincialย Liberals’ streakย ended in 2018, but the party held government for 15 years betweenย McGuinty and Wynne’s combined time at theย helm.
In an op-ed published in the Toronto Star on Monday, Wynne shared some perspective on circumstances that cannot be overcome in politics.
“Today is a rough day for Justin Trudeau, for his children and family and for his team,” Wynne wrote.ย
“Those who have been cheering on his demiseย will have a good day, no doubt, but in my experience, it is wise to be measured in both the jubilance in victory and the despair in loss. Neither lasts forever.”
