Sales set to grow up to 45% in 2026

German arms maker Rheinmetall said it sees this year’s sales growing by as much as 45% as it reported 2025 revenue growing 29% year-over-year, missing expectations.

It also said it was in a “prime position to help the US replenish their missile stockpiles” used in the war in Iran, such as supplying critical solid rocket motors.

In a presentation to accompany earnings on Wednesday, the company said “higher spend for missile restocking and air defence” was “inevitable.”

It comes as defense companies are expected to be on the receiving end of governments’ hiked spending on military capabilities, amid increased demand due to the wars in Ukraine and Iran. Rheinmetall expects its order backlog to more than double to 135 billion euros this year.

“The tense security situation underpins the promising position of the Group, whose products are playing an increasingly important role for the increase in defence capabilities in Germany and its partner countries,” Rheinmetall said.

The defense giant, Germany’s seventh-largest company by market value, issued its 2026 outlook, which it had hinted at during a preclose call in early February.

Group sales are expected to grow by between 40% and 45% to between 14 billion ($16.26 billion) and 14.5 billion euros. Operating result margin is expected to be around 19%, up from 18.5% in 2025. Jefferies analysts called the guidance “realistic but soft.”

“The world is changing rapidly, and Rheinmetall is well prepared,” said CEO Armin Papperger in a statement.

“With our products, we will have a significant share in the increasing equipment spend of the armed forces and deliver what modern armed forces need in the 21st century.”

Shares fell 5.2% in early trading on Wednesday while the pan-European Stoxx 600 index was down 0.7%.

Sales grew by 29% over the full year to 9.94 billion euros ($11.56 billion), missing expectations of 10.53 billion euros, according LSEG estimates.

Earnings before tax and interest came in at 1.68 billion euros, compared with estimates of 1.75 billion euros, while the order backlog reached a record high of 63.8 billion euros, a 36% jump from the previous year. 

“As budget approvals resumed toward year‑end and defence spending picked up across Europe – particularly in Germany – we expect delayed programmes to convert into contracts, supporting a rebound in nominations and reinforcing the company’s already elevated backlog,” noted Morningstar analyst Loredana Muharremi ahead of the print. 

In February, the company indicated sales for this year would come in at between 13.2 billion and 14.1 billion euros, and EBIT between 2.4 billion and 2.8 billion euros, both more than 10% below expectations. Shares subsequently fell 6.5%.

Barclays analysts in February called the share move following the indicated guidance “a marked over-reaction,” saying that “expectations are high, and shares continue to be very sensitive to any information that comes out.”

Noting some confusion over the like-for-like numbers this year, given recent changes to the business structure, the analysts said that weapon and ammunition growth will remain elevated, and there is scope for its naval business to be resilient, too. 

“From a structural perspective we think nothing has really changed here: the backlog growth in 2026 will be material.”

Rheinmetall shares have risen about 540% over the past three years, as a leading provider of land systems and ammunition in Europe.

Gains, however, have moderated over the past year as some investors question whether shares have reached their full value and if growth can be sustained long-term. Coming into Wednesday trading, the stock was up just 3.4% year-to-date. 

Rheinmetall and other defense firms like Britain’s Bae Systems and Italy’s Leonardo are viewed as well-placed to capitalize on hiked spending by European governments over the next five years against a backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Rheinmetall is looking to sell its civilian automotive to focus purely on meeting demand for its defence business. It’s also now active in the naval sector following its acquisition of shipbuilder Naval Vessels Lürssen, which closed in February.

Shares of defense companies, including Rheinmetall, initially spiked after the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran on Feb. 28, killing its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It raised fears that the attacks would develop into a full-blown war engulfing the entire Middle East region, which would eventually lead to more demand for military equipment.

Gains later pared some gains, and while large European defense stocks are up on average between 5% and 10% since the first strikes, Rheinmetall was largely flat over that period, coming into Wednesday trading.

Smaller country-peer Renk’s CEO Alexander Sagel said earlier this month that the Iran war could drive increasing demand for defense capabilities in the Gulf region.

In November last year, Rheinmetall predicted its sales would quintuple over the next five years, boosted by robust demand for its weapons systems amid geopolitical tensions and the war in Ukraine. The bulk of the estimated 50 billion euros in revenue by 2030 will come from its vehicle systems and weapon and ammunition businesses, the company forecasted. It also sees operating margin expanding to about 20%, up from 15.2% in 2024.

In 2025, the Weapon and Ammunition business grew 27% to 3.53 billion euros. Its largest unit, Vehicle Systems, which makes tanks and military trucks, grew 32% to 4.99 billion euros over the year.

It proposed a dividend of 11.50 euros per share, up from 8.10 euros last year, on the back of the growing sales and profits.