If you want to have a sense of the federal parties’ campaign strategies, it helps toย follow the leader.
An individual announcementย in one riding might not indicate much, but taking a wider view reveals patterns in a party’s plan of attack.
CBC News analyzed the whereabouts of the main party leaders and every event they held.
On the eve of Monday’s vote, here areย five things that stood outย about the leaders’ tours.
NDP’s campaign flip
The NDPย was eventually forced to flipย fromย an offensive campaign, a strategy in which the party was looking to add seats, to a defensive one โ and the change was stark.
In the first three weeks of the campaign, 78 per cent ofย NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s visits were to non-NDP-held ridingsย โ the highestย percentage among the four main party leaders.ย
But after the debates, the party entered save-the-furniture mode. It couldn’t shake polling that suggested the party was on the verge of losing official status, which requires 12 seats.
Sixty-oneย per cent of Singh’s visits in the campaign’sย final stretch were to ridingsย held byย theย NDP.
Tari Ajadi, an assistant political science professor atย McGill University, argues the New Democratsย had theirย chanceย to make inroads before the election was called.
He said the NDP should have moved to a defensive posture earlier in the campaign, once its struggle to pick up support was becoming clear.
Conservatives stay the course
The Conservatives needย Liberal ridings in order to have any shot at forming government, andย Pierreย Poilievre’s itineraryย bears this out.
More than three-quarters of Poilievre’sย stopsย have been to ridings the Conservatives would like to carry.
Of those visits, 80 per cent were trips to Liberal-held seats.
“For them toย be able to form government, they need to be aggressive and they need to win seats in places like the GTA. They need to win seats in Quebec. They need to win seats in Atlantic Canada,” Ajadi said.
Liberals focused on making gains
The Liberals heldย a “tentative”ย lead in the early stretchย of the campaign, Ajadi said, because itย wasn’t clear if the party’s resurgence under new leader Mark Carney had staying power.ย
As such, Carney spent a majority of his first stopsย โ 57 per centย โ inย ridings the party held at dissolution, but “after the debate, what I think we see is a firming up of that Liberal support,” Ajadi said.ย
The party startedย prioritizingย non-incumbent ridings, which became 64 per cent of the leader’s remaining visits, up from 43 per cent.
Lydia Miljan, a political science professor at the University of Windsor, said the Liberals and Conservatives mounted aggressive campaigns because they needed to.
She added the frequency in which the Liberals visitedย their own ridings is partially a function of the party having more seats than its rivals.
Blanchetย protectingย Bloc seats
The Bloc Quรฉbรฉcoisย joined the NDPย in spending most of its last week shoring up support in seats that were once safe bets.
The party was deploying a half-offensive, half-defensive strategy, but since the debate 84 per cent of leader Yves-Franรงois Blanchet’s appearances have been in Bloc-blueย ridings, including a number ofย return visits.
Ajadi saidย Blanchet is one of the mainย peopleย standing in the way of Liberal hopes for a majority government.ย
In the last 10 days, Blanchet visited eight ridings at least twice, including multiple appearances to battleground Bloc-held seatsย Thรฉrรจse-De Blainville and Longueuil-Saint-Hubert.
“If the Bloc wins those ridings thenย itย might be more likely that the Liberals end up winning a minority,” Ajadi said.
For his part,ย Blanchet has denied that he’s just clingingย to the seats he already has.
“I’m not playing defence โย that’s your analysis, not mine,” he’s told reporters.
Repeat visits show tight races
The NDP’s Jagmeet Singh was a familiar face in a number of ridings.
He made at least three stops in eight ridings, including four visits to Vancouver Kingsway, a stronghold the NDPย has won handily in the past but is believed to be hotly contested in this election.
Singh has also stopped in Burnaby Central, his own riding, four times. Polling suggests the NDP’s grasp on theย seat is tenuous.
These regular visits from Singh showย “they can’t afford to lose those” seats,ย Miljanย said, but itย also demonstrates the party has a smaller war chest and cannot afford to criss-crossย the countryย at the paceย of the Liberals or Conservatives.
For comparison’s sake, the Conservatives only visited two ridings at least threeย times: Carleton, Poilievre’sย seat in Ontario, and the Liberal riding of Surrey Newton in B.C.
Meanwhile, the Liberals only exceeded two visits atย one location:ย Laurier-Sainte-Marie in Montreal, home to the Maison de Radio-Canada where the debates and Cinq chefs,ย uneย รฉlectionย were held.
